[Research Contribution] Investment Behavior of Vietnamese Enterprises Through the Lens of Global Uncertainty and Monetary Policy
16 March, 2026
Keywords: Global uncertainty; Monetary policy; Corporate investment behavior; Vietnam.
Amid a global economy buffeted by wars, pandemics, and policy shocks, Vietnamese enterprises face a critical capital allocation challenge between productive investment and financial investment. Against this backdrop, a research team from the University of Economics Ho Chi Minh City (UEH) and collaborators analyzed data from listed non-financial enterprises over the 2013–2021 period to shed light on this trend. The findings reveal that as the risk of investing in fixed assets and the degree of global economic policy uncertainty increase, enterprises tend to shift capital toward financial assets as a highly liquid “safe haven.” While monetary policy may contribute to curbing the financialization trend, its regulatory role weakens significantly in an environment of global instability.
The Financialization Trend in Non-Financial Enterprises
In a climate of mounting uncertainty, monetary policy becomes a critical regulatory instrument – not only for the macroeconomy but also in directly shaping corporate investment and financing decisions. Following the process of financial liberalization, non-financial enterprises face a capital allocation choice between two major asset classes: fixed assets and financial assets. Extensive empirical evidence shows that the investment structure has undergone a pronounced shift toward a higher proportion of financial assets and a lower proportion of fixed assets – a phenomenon known as “financialization.”
As risks and uncertainty intensify, and with imperfect capital markets and higher costs of capital, enterprises tend to turn to financial investment as a more flexible solution. Two primary factors drive this trend: the return differential between financial investment and fixed investment, and the level of risk associated with fixed investment. With a given pool of capital, enterprises can adjust or substitute between the two asset classes to optimize expected returns. In practice, non-financial enterprises are increasingly allocating resources to interest payments, dividends, and share buybacks – signals of a growing emphasis on financial activities and the goal of maximizing firm value. The proportion of financial assets in many enterprises’ asset structures has also risen significantly.
In Vietnam, statistics from the 2012–2022 period reveal a clear financialization trend. The financial asset investment ratio among listed non-financial enterprises rose by 16.97%, while the fixed asset investment ratio declined by 16.53%. This development calls for a deeper understanding of the macro-level and firm-level factors driving the shift in capital allocation priorities, particularly given Vietnam’s status as an emerging market increasingly exposed to global volatility.
Monetary Policy and Its Regulatory Role in Investment
In Vietnam, the impact of monetary policy on corporate investment decisions has been examined by numerous studies. However, the practical picture shows that this regulatory role is neither straightforward nor uniform across enterprises.
Several studies indicate that when monetary policy changes, the degree of corporate response depends on firm size, capital structure, and the level of dependence on bank credit. Notably, unexpected monetary shocks can cause fixed investment to decline more sharply among financially constrained enterprises. However, in cases where enterprises have major shareholders that are non-financial companies, the adverse effects of monetary policy can be mitigated. These shareholders help enterprises improve access to external capital, thereby reducing reliance on internal cash flows when the credit environment tightens. Other studies have also noted that monetary policy plays a role in the adjustment of fixed investment, but the degree of influence depends on the financial conditions and intrinsic characteristics of each enterprise.
Beyond domestic factors, global uncertainty constitutes an important variable. As the level of instability rises, corporate performance and investment decline, while the tendency to hold cash increases as a risk-hedging measure. Nevertheless, the majority of existing studies focus on fixed investment. In-depth analyses of corporate financial investment behavior and the factors governing these decisions remain limited, particularly in the context of a transitional economy like Vietnam.
What Sets This Research Apart
The distinguishing feature of this study lies in its construction of an investment choice model based on the Constant Absolute Risk Aversion (CARA) assumption, validated using data from listed non-financial enterprises in Vietnam. While topics such as corporate investment, risk, monetary policy, and uncertainty have been explored previously, this research delves into the relationship between the relative risk of fixed investment and the financial investment ratio of enterprises, within a context simultaneously shaped by monetary policy and global economic policy uncertainty.
The empirical results show that monetary policy can contribute to reducing the financial investment ratio, thereby limiting the financialization trend. However, when global uncertainty intensifies, this regulatory effect is overwhelmed and the financial investment ratio rises once again. This represents a notable departure from the findings of many earlier studies, particularly in the context of Vietnam and China. The study’s contribution lies in its empirical evidence demonstrating that monetary policy expansion does not necessarily lead enterprises to increase fixed asset investment to stimulate the real economy, if the global environment continues to harbor elevated levels of risk.
Policy and Strategic Implications
Drawing from the empirical findings, the study raises important considerations regarding the financialization trend among non-financial enterprises in Vietnam, particularly amid rising fixed investment risk, prolonged global economic policy uncertainty, and continuous monetary policy adjustments.
For enterprises and investors, there is a need to reposition strategies and identify both macro and micro factors that may influence investment behavior, clearly distinguishing between sustainable investment and the maximization of firm value.
From a policy perspective, policymakers in Vietnam must pay greater attention to the risks embedded in various forms of corporate investment, while closely monitoring and proactively developing policies to address global uncertainties.
In a world where instability has become the “new normal” of the global economy, the question is not merely whether to loosen or tighten monetary policy, but how to build sufficient confidence and conditions for enterprises to prioritize investment in the productive sector, rather than treating financial assets as a safe stopping point.
Read the full article “Risk, Return Differentials, and Financial Investment of Vietnamese Enterprises: The Impacts of Global Uncertainty and Monetary Policy” HERE.
Authors: Prof. Dr. Nguyen Khac Quoc Bao, Dr. To Cong Nguyen Bao – University of Economics Ho Chi Minh City, Bui Thi Thao Trang – RSM Vietnam
This article is part of a series disseminating research and applied knowledge under the message “Research Contribution For All” carried out by UEH in collaboration with Khanh Hoa Newspaper and Radio-Television, with the aim of supporting the sustainable development of Khanh Hoa Province. UEH cordially invites readers to stay tuned for the next edition of the Scientific Knowledge bulletin.
News, photos:University of Economics Ho Chi Minh City
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